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Only been out 4 times this year due to weather on the weekends but it sure seems like the bait population offshore is not what its been over the last couple of years.  Fish seem smaller too which I have heard reports of all the way up to Ludington.  Got 9 coho last Sunday and only a couple had some old alwives in them with the rest either gobies or nothing.  I recall a report posted earlier in the year from Michigan about "concerning" levels of bait detected, anybody experiencing anything different?

I am concerned as well, been seeing majority magnum size bait in my fish which is also concerning. What I will say on a positive note though is the fish do seem smaller but none look unhealthy. Also, I heard some people saying they've been seeing a ton if bait in close with the water temps being what they are maybe were all just running over a lot of fish on the bait.... who knows unless someone tries...

I was out perch fishing out of portage today and had marks on my screen like crazy near bottom, I’m newer to fishing the lake out of my own boat and had assumed they were perch. Ended up catching about 30 alewives in about 35 feet of water without perch and then switched to steelhead. Couldn’t go a couple minutes without marking them.

So not trying to get to involved in this post but,,,, take a look at the graph. The number that is concerning is the number of natural kings that are in the system.
Take a look at were the numbers were at right before we had to take cuts. Then look at the most recent years and ask yourself are we pushing to that point again?

If you were one of the lake managers,,,,,,,, how do you account for all the kings now. They have to eat. Fishermen were asked just a few years ago. What do you want in your fishery? Bigger fish or more fish. The more fish group was heard the loudest. And thats what we got. When fish can not acheive there normal size and feed the way mother nature intended them to then you have fish that are on the border. This time of year Coho should be in the 6-8lb size,(July4th) with some pushing 10lbs. Kings for Indiana should be in the 17-21lb, class, with some pushing 25lbs. Are we there??? Trying to manage this lake is not easy, and when we fishermen think we know more then the real lake managers then you get what you asked for.

So I guess a few of you are now asking yourself how do we get all the naturals in the system???? They have always been there. Why are there so many???

When mother nature blesses us with a good alewife spawn the salmon fingerlings make out really well. We see here how bait coverage helps cover the spring stocking that we put in.here. The stocking gets a chance to survive and grow.There are rivers and streams that can produce naturals thru spawning. When the alewife have a really good spawning year all the fish have a good chance at long term survival. All means just that ALL ARE DOING WELL. Managers can control the stocking but cannot control the amount of naturals that also get produced. Thats the problem we face. It isn't the amount of stocking rather the amount of natural fish that cannot be controlled.

The last of the items that managers cannot control,,,,,,,,,, when alewife spawn. So if we have years before another good lake wide spawning event it is possible to out eat what gets produced. We are seeing that the times between good spawning events is spreading out now over time instead of happening more often.
Stress on bait thru quaggas,,,,, it sure would be a different lake with out the real problem we face.

With all the extra fish in the lake it's easy to see why the bait is down along with the size of our fish. Looking like it's possible to eat the lake "DRY" of bait. We don't really want the smaller "starved" fish to be used for replenishing our stock. That's just not what we want. To me it looks like cuts in stocking is the answer. But is it?

I think we are looking at some cuts this yr too. As Lickety Split mentioned earlier in the season the spawning female weights were down last fall which is one of the metrics they look at each year to determine stocking. That with the smaller fish everyone is seeing this yr seems to point to that being the right call to me anyway. 

I'm just glad there's folks talking about bait population and the fact that it shouldn't be taken for granted! A huge change from 10 years ago, when I was receiving pictures of individual bait balls to prove there was still bait in the lake and stocking should be increased.


In terms of where we're at right now, there's a few things going on

1) given the bumper 2023 alewife spawn, there are a LOT of 2 year old kings out there

2) given the very poor 2022 alewife spawn, there are not very many 3 year old kings

That right there is probably 75% of the "small fish issue" that people are noticing regarding the chinooks - they're just young, not undersized per se

3) given the recent increase in wild chinook salmon numbers that Ed posted, at a certain point, cutting stocking has diminishing returns. When you have an estimated 9 million wild smolts vs just under 3 million stocked smolts, your ability to control predation is limited. With only about 30% of the chinooks being of hatchery origin, a 50% stocking cut is only reducing the chinook population by 15%, all else being equal. 

4) a lot of the indicators aren't flashing red, but more of a yellow. Fish weights are down, but they're not unhealthy. There's a lot of salmon out there, but also a decent amount of alewives of multiple ages. The predator prey ratio has been climbing for a couple years but is not yet in the danger zone. The average weight of a 3 year old chinook and a 35 inch chinook are down but still higher than most of the 2000s


So in summary, I'm glad there's some concern and thoughts of being proactive. My sense is that we're a lot closer to needing to cut stocking than we are to increasing, but the lake committee will probably be wanting to see some more data before making a decision.

Let's hope this quick warmup really helps the alewife spawn this year!

A lot of moving parts in fisheries management with so much up to forces beyond anyone's control!  Kudos to them for managing what they can successfully with the limited funding and resources they receive.  Obviously the lake is a dynamic environment and as such will have cyclical changes.  This may be nothing more than bait staying in shallower longer than usual, an off year in alewife reproduction, or stocking decisions based on public opinion versus science.  Maybe all three and more!  Any of us fishing for years on the lake have seen these swings before and will see them again. Curently, our catch numbers are definitely higher, size definitely smaller which is the exact opposite than last year for us.  Still some good fishing days ahead to test all these theories.